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Standard Guide for Evaluating the Predictive Capability of Deterministic Fire Models 确定性火灾模型预测能力评估的标准指南
发布日期: 2023-07-01
1.1 本指南提供了一种评估特定用途火灾模型预测能力的方法。其目的是涵盖所有确定性数值模型,这些模型可用于评估火灾对结构的影响。 1.2 该方法分为四个评价领域: 1.2.1 定义要进行评估的模型和场景, 1.2.2 验证模型中使用的理论基础和假设的适当性, 1.2.3 验证模型的数学和数值稳健性,以及 1.2.4 量化模型的不确定性和准确性可以预测类似火灾场景中的事件过程。 1.3 本标准并非旨在解决与其使用相关的所有安全问题(如有)。本标准的使用者有责任在使用前制定适当的安全、健康和环境实践,并确定监管限制的适用性。 1.4 该消防标准不能用于提供定量措施。 1.5 本国际标准是根据世界贸易组织技术性贸易壁垒委员会发布的《关于制定国际标准、指南和建议的原则的决定》中确立的国际公认的标准化原则制定的。 ===意义和用途====== 5.1 模型评估过程对于确定火灾模型的可接受用途和局限性至关重要。不可能对一个模型进行全面评估;相反,本指南旨在提供一种评估特定用途预测能力的方法。对一个应用程序或场景的验证并不意味着对不同场景的验证。提供了执行评估过程的几种替代方案,包括: 将预测与标准火灾试验、全尺寸火灾实验、现场经验、已发表的文献或先前评估的模型进行比较。 5.2 目前,火灾模型的使用范围已超出火灾研究实验室,进入工程、消防和法律界。对火灾模型进行充分评估是必要的,以确保使用模型的人能够判断模型的科学和技术基础的充分性,选择适合预期用途的模型,并了解模型预测结果的置信度。充分的评估将有助于防止无意中滥用火灾模型。 5.3 本指南旨在与E05委员会正在制定的其他指南一起使用。其用途如下: 5.3.1 模型开发人员-- 记录特定计算方法的有用性,可能用于特定应用。 模型开发的一部分包括精度和适用性极限的确定,以及独立测试。 5.3.2 模型用户-- 确保他们正在为应用程序使用适当的模型,并且该模型提供足够的准确性。 5.3.3 模型性能代码的开发人员-- 确保他们将有效的计算过程纳入代码中。 5.3.4 审批官员-- 为了确保提交的材料中引用的使用符合本指南的数学模型的计算结果清楚地表明,该模型在其适用范围内使用,并且具有可接受的精度水平。 5.3.5 教育工作者-- 证明正在教授的计算方法的应用和可接受性。 5.4 本指南并非旨在描述验收测试程序。 5.5 本指南的重点是火灾演变的数值模型。 5.5.1 模型的精度是指模型的确定能力及其可重复性。 5.5.2 模型的准确性是指模型在多大程度上复制了实际火灾的演变。
1.1 This guide provides a methodology for evaluating the predictive capabilities of a fire model for a specific use. The intent is to cover the whole range of deterministic numerical models which might be used in evaluating the effects of fires in and on structures. 1.2 The methodology is presented in terms of four areas of evaluation: 1.2.1 Defining the model and scenarios for which the evaluation is to be conducted, 1.2.2 Verifying the appropriateness of the theoretical basis and assumptions used in the model, 1.2.3 Verifying the mathematical and numerical robustness of the model, and 1.2.4 Quantifying the uncertainty and accuracy of the model results in predicting of the course of events in similar fire scenarios. 1.3 This standard does not purport to address all of the safety concerns, if any, associated with its use. It is the responsibility of the user of this standard to establish appropriate safety, health, and environmental practices and determine the applicability of regulatory limitations prior to use. 1.4 This fire standard cannot be used to provide quantitative measures. 1.5 This international standard was developed in accordance with internationally recognized principles on standardization established in the Decision on Principles for the Development of International Standards, Guides and Recommendations issued by the World Trade Organization Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) Committee. ====== Significance And Use ====== 5.1 The process of model evaluation is critical to establishing both the acceptable uses and limitations of fire models. It is not possible to evaluate a model in total; instead, this guide is intended to provide a methodology for evaluating the predictive capabilities for a specific use. Validation for one application or scenario does not imply validation for different scenarios. Several alternatives are provided for performing the evaluation process including: comparison of predictions against standard fire tests, full-scale fire experiments, field experience, published literature, or previously evaluated models. 5.2 The use of fire models currently extends beyond the fire research laboratory and into the engineering, fire service and legal communities. Sufficient evaluation of fire models is necessary to ensure that those using the models can judge the adequacy of the scientific and technical basis for the models, select models appropriate for a desired use, and understand the level of confidence which can be placed on the results predicted by the models. Adequate evaluation will help prevent the unintentional misuse of fire models. 5.3 This guide is intended to be used in conjunction with other guides under development by Committee E05. It is intended for use by: 5.3.1 Model Developers— To document the usefulness of a particular calculation method perhaps for specific applications. Part of model development includes identification of precision and limits of applicability, and independent testing. 5.3.2 Model Users— To assure themselves that they are using an appropriate model for an application and that it provides adequate accuracy. 5.3.3 Developers of Model Performance Codes— To be sure that they are incorporating valid calculation procedures into codes. 5.3.4 Approving Officials— To ensure that the results of calculations using mathematical models stating conformance to this guide, cited in a submission, show clearly that the model is used within its applicable limits and has an acceptable level of accuracy. 5.3.5 Educators— To demonstrate the application and acceptability of calculation methods being taught. 5.4 This guide is not meant to describe an acceptance testing procedure. 5.5 The emphasis of this guide is numerical models of fire evolution. 5.5.1 The precision of a model refers to the deterministic capability of a model and its repeatability. 5.5.2 The accuracy of a model refers to how well the model replicates the evolution of an actual fire.
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归口单位: E05.33
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