1.1 本规程涵盖了在煤炭资源评估中定量确定就地吨位不确定性的程序。该实践使用煤炭赋存数据库，并应用地质统计学方法对与一个或多个煤层估计吨位相关的不确定性进行建模。实践包括以图形形式准备结果的说明。 1.2 本文件不包括标准制定背后的基本理论的详细介绍，可在众多出版物中找到，参考文献中给出了选择 ( 1- 3. ) . 2. 1.3 这种做法应与对煤矿床许多独特方面的专业判断结合使用。 1.4 本标准并非旨在解决与其使用相关的所有安全问题（如有）。本标准的用户有责任在使用前制定适当的安全、健康和环境实践，并确定监管限制的适用性。 1.5 本国际标准是根据世界贸易组织技术性贸易壁垒（TBT）委员会发布的《关于制定国际标准、指南和建议的原则的决定》中确立的国际公认标准化原则制定的。 ====意义和用途====== 5.1 表达地质不确定性的传统方法包括仅基于钻孔数据点之间的距离来准备可靠性类别，如Wood等人所述。 ( 5. ) 仅使用煤层内的钻孔。距离方法的一个主要缺点是其与估计误差的弱到零关联。该实践为利用随机模拟有效评估煤炭资源估算中的不确定性提供了一种方法。在确定任何煤炭评估的不确定性时，随机模拟可以考虑钻孔位置几何形状以外的其他重要因素和信息，包括煤层内外的因素和信息，包括: 非沉积通道、风化深度、煤层边界的复杂性、煤层亚速投影，以及由于泥炭沉积环境的波动，不同煤层的不同煤层地质情况。 5.2 对于多煤层矿床，不确定性可以在单个煤层的基础上表示，也可以表示整个煤层的聚合不确定性。 5.3 不确定性直接以吨煤表示。此外，这种做法允许根据广泛接受的惯例进行统计分析，例如百分位和置信区间，例如，存在90 % 实际到位吨位为3.46亿吨煤±3170万吨煤的概率。 5.4 不确定性确定的结果可以为评估煤矿商业可行性的整体风险分析提供重要输入。 5.5 公司可以根据不确定性程度对每个区块（单元）的煤炭资源进行排名。

1.1 This practice covers a procedure for quantitatively determining in-place tonnage uncertainty in a coal resource assessment. The practice uses a database on coal occurrence and applies geostatistical methods to model the uncertainty associated with a tonnage estimated for one or more coal seams. The practice includes instruction for the preparation of results in graphical form. 1.2 This document does not include a detailed presentation of the basic theory behind the formulation of the standard, which can be found in numerous publications, with a selection being given in the references ( 1- 3 ) . 2 1.3 This practice should be used in conjunction with professional judgment of the many unique aspects of a coal deposit. 1.4 This standard does not purport to address all of the safety concerns, if any, associated with its use. It is the responsibility of the user of this standard to establish appropriate safety, health, and environmental practices and determine the applicability of regulatory limitations prior to use. 1.5 This international standard was developed in accordance with internationally recognized principles on standardization established in the Decision on Principles for the Development of International Standards, Guides and Recommendations issued by the World Trade Organization Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) Committee. ====== Significance And Use ====== 5.1 Traditional methods for expressing geological uncertainty consist of preparing reliability categories based simply on the distance between drill hole data points, such as the one described by Wood et al. ( 5 ) that uses only the drill holes within the coal bed. A major drawback of distance methods is their weak to null association with estimation errors. This practice provides a methodology for effectively assessing the uncertainty in coal resource estimates utilizing stochastic simulation. In determining uncertainty for any coal assessment, stochastic simulation enables consideration of other important factors and information beyond the geometry of drill hole locations, both in and out of the coal bed, including: non-depositional channels, depth of weathering, complexity of seam boundaries, coal seam subcrop projections, and varying coal bed geology for different seams due to fluctuating peat depositional environments. 5.2 For multi-seam deposits, uncertainty can be expressed on an individual seam basis as well as an aggregated uncertainty for an entire coal deposit. 5.3 The uncertainty is expressed directly in tons of coal. Additionally, this practice allows the statistical analysis to be presented according to widely-accepted conventions, such as percentiles and confidence intervals, say, that there is a 90 % probability that the actual tonnage in place is 346 million tons of coal ± 31.7 million tons of coal. 5.4 The results of an uncertainty determination can provide important input into an overall risk analysis assessing the commercial feasibility of a coal deposit. 5.5 A company may rank coal resources per block (cell) based on the degree of uncertainty.