ASHRAE标准55推荐的预测平均投票（PMV）模型用于测量热舒适性，该模型使用六个变量来计算热舒适性:温度、空气流速、相对湿度、平均辐射温度、代谢率和衣物隔热值。这些变量的取值范围很广，这给系统设计师带来了不确定性，他们的目标是在热区内为乘客提供热舒适。这项工作定量地确定了各种条件下预测平均投票模型中最具影响力的变量。我们使用蒙特卡罗模拟对预测平均投票模型中的六个变量进行全局敏感性分析，为暖通空调系统控制的变量（温度、风速、相对湿度和辐射温度）和非控制的变量（代谢率和衣物隔热）分配概率分布而非确定性值。 使用其他方法对PMV模型进行的敏感性分析表明，代谢率和衣物隔热对PMV方程有很大影响，需要测量值。在这项研究中，我们调查了PMV在各种环境条件下对这些因素的敏感性。利用代谢率的概率分布，我们还量化了办公楼不符合ASHRAE标准55的风险，同时仍符合inASHRAE标准55中提到的可接受的工作温度限值。在这些案例研究中，我们还量化了代谢率变化导致的不适风险。根据ASHRAE标准55，这些结果用于为测量代谢率所需的详细程度提出建议。引用:2019年冬季会议，佐治亚州亚特兰大，会议论文

The Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) model, recommended by ASHRAE Standard 55 for measuring thermal comfort, uses six variables to calculatethermal comfort: temperature, air velocity, relative humidity, mean radiant temperature, metabolic rates, and clothing insulation values. These variables cantake on a wide range of values, introducing uncertainty for the system designer who aims to provide thermal comfort to the occupants within a thermal zone.This work quantitatively identifies the most influential variables in the Predicted Mean Vote model under a variety of conditions. We use Monte Carlosimulations to perform a global sensitivity analysis of the six variables in the Predicted Mean Vote model, with probability distributions rather thandeterministic values assigned for the both the variables controlled by the HVAC system (temperature, air velocity, relative humidity and radianttemperature) and those that are not (metabolic rates and clothing insulation). Sensitivity analyses performed on the PMV model using other methodssuggest that metabolic rate and clothing insulation are highly influential in the PMV equation and require measured values. In this study, we investigatethe sensitivity of PMV to these factors in a variety of ambient conditions. Using the probability distributions for metabolic rate, we also quantify the risk ofan office building not conforming to ASHRAE Standard 55 while still aligning with the acceptable operative temperature limits as mentioned inASHRAE Standard 55. We also quantify the risk of discomfort due to variations in metabolic rates in these case studies. These results are used to makerecommendations for the level of detail needed in measuring metabolic rates, based on ASHRAE Standard 55.