The objective of the study discussed
in this article is to utilize commercial
distribution system modeling
software to understand how a
drinking water system could be
affected by the intentional introduction
of chemical contaminants.
The hydraulic model results are used to estimate the risk involved in several
feed scenarios and chemical contaminants.
The model results are
then combined with concentration-response sensitivity data from routine
monitoring instruments to determine
the ability of each chemical contaminant
to be detected. Because the
four chemicals studied -- parathion,
VX, sodium monofluoroacetate
(1080) and cyanide -- are modeled
as highly persistent, their comparative
effects are determined by the
toxicity of the highest practical
dosage.
The results of the modeling scenarios
show that large-scale contamination
of a drinking water system
may be accomplished through backflow
into major network water supply
lines. Strategically located points
of attack outside of the major supply
lines can also produce large-scale
contamination at lesser concentrations.
Points chosen at random for a
covert contamination attack within
the distribution system will optimally
affect an area of a few neighboring
streets of up to 1 sq mi, depending on
the pipe velocities and flow patterns
within the distribution system as well
as other factors. The Expanded Summary in this issue offers a condensed review of study findings; a full discussion of the study results can be found online at www.awwa.org/communications/e-journal/index-past issues/2005/January. Includes 12 references.