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Quantifying Risk with Selection of the Natural Gas Maximum Daily Quantity 通过选择天然气最大日产量来量化风险
作为天然气合同的一部分,许多大型天然气消费者需要选择他们能够以“固定”价格消费的天然气的最大日用量(MDQ);然后向他们收取与MDQ选择成比例的“容量”费用。该费用类似于电力客户可能经历的容量需求费用,但不同之处在于客户提前选择价值,而不是根据过去的使用情况计费。选择适当的MDQ值代表了一个有趣的数学和经济问题,可能会对客户产生重大的财务影响。在这项研究中开展的工作为客户每年节省了约60万美元(每年600万至800万美元的账单),并更好地量化了与MDQ选择相关的风险。本文详细描述了这个问题,并提供了一种量化单个大型项目成本和风险权衡的数学方法- 中西部的天然气用户规模。引用:佛罗里达州奥兰多2020年冬季会议技术论文
Many large-scale natural gas consumers are required toselect the Maximum Daily Quantity (MDQ) of natural gas theywill be able to consume at a “firm” rate as a part of their naturalgas contract; they are then charged a “capacity” fee thatis proportional to the MDQ selection. This charge is analogousto the capacity demand charge that electrical customers mayexperience, but differs in that the customer selects the valueahead of time instead of being billed on past usage. Selectionof the appropriate value of the MDQ represents an interestingmathematical and economic problem that can have significantfinancial implications for the customer. The work performed inthis study resulted in a savings of ~$600,000 annually (for a6 to 8 million dollar annual bill) for the customer and a betterquantification of risks related to selection of the MDQ. Thisarticle provides a detailed description of the problem and amathematical approach to quantifying the cost and risk tradeofffor a single large-scale natural gas user in the Midwest.
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