描述了一种计算机模拟方法，该方法根据具体情况检查水质对三卤甲烷（THM）形成的影响及其相关的理论癌症风险。对氯化点控制有机碳浓度的策略进行了评估，以评估其降低预测癌症发病率的能力。在含有溴化物的水中，随着氯化点有机碳浓度的降低，溴化程度较高的三卤甲烷的绝对浓度会增加；然而，在所有考虑的水质中，三卤甲烷诱发癌症的总理论风险都有所降低。随着源水溴化物浓度的增加，通过强化混凝、颗粒活性炭吸附和膜过滤降低THM诱发癌症的风险增加。当考虑到由卤乙酸引起的风险时，这些技术可以实现比仅考虑THM风险估计的风险降低水平显著更高的风险降低水平。 包括16个参考文献、表格和图表。

A computer simulation methodology is described that examines, on a case-specific basis, the effect of water quality on the formation of trihalomethanes (THMs) and their associated theoretical cancer risks. The strategy of controlling organic carbon concentrations at the point of chlorination was evaluated for its ability to reduce predicted cancer incidence. In waters containing bromide, the absolute concentrations of the more brominated THMs can increase as organic carbon concentration is reduced at the point of chlorination; total theoretical cancer risks induced by THMs, however, decreased for all water qualities considered. Reduction of THM-induced cancer risks by enhanced coagulation, granular activated carbon adsorption, and membrane filtration increased as the source water bromide concentration increased. When risks induced by haloacetic acids are considered, these technologies may achieve significantly greater levels of risk reduction than are estimated by considering THM risks only. Includes 16 references, tables, figures.