本文描述了一个针对无侧限含水层开发的二维有限元集成深度地下水流动和污染物运移模型。在25年的时间里，对地下水流动和污染物运移进行了瞬态模拟，以纳入在受污染含水层中筛选的几个市政井的波动抽水速率。进行了1000次试验的蒙特卡罗分析，以评估由于污染物传输参数的不确定性而导致的市政井浓度穿透曲线的不确定性。 多个模型输入参数用概率密度函数表示，而导水率场用相关随机场表示。在每个时间步计算每个井的1000个浓度穿透曲线的百分位，以产生随机浓度穿透曲线。

This paper describes a two-dimensional finite element integrated depth groundwater flow and contaminant transport model that was developed for an unconfined aquifer. Transient simulations for both groundwater flow and contaminant transport were performed over a 25 year period to incorporate the fluctuating pumping rates from several municipal wells screened in the contaminated aquifer. A Monte Carlo analysis of 1,000 trials was performed to assess the uncertainty of concentration breakthrough curves at municipal wells resulting from the uncertainty in contaminant transport parameters. Several model input parameters were represented by probability density functions while the hydraulic conductivity field was represented by a correlated random field. Percentiles were calculated at each time step for the 1,000 concentration breakthrough curves at each well to yield stochastic concentration breakthrough curves.