干旱管理的一个主要目标是通过短期保护措施减少水需求。为了准确判断这些措施的有效性，有必要估计在没有保护的情况下需求量。本文介绍了为此目的开发的每日需求模型。该模型使用阿尔蒙滞后来解释滞后的气象变量，并包含一个自回归误差项。该模型应用于两个案例研究，以估算基线需求，并与1986年美国东南部干旱期间的实际需求进行比较。 包括13个参考文献、图表。

A primary goal of drought management is the reduction of water demand through short-term conservation measures. To accurately judge the effectiveness of these measures, it is necessary to estimate what the demand would have been in the absence of conservation. A daily demand model developed for that purpose is presented in this article. The model uses Almon lags to account for lagged meteorological variables and includes an autoregressive error term. The model is applied in two case studies to estimate baseline demands for comparison with actual demands during the drought of 1986 in the southeastern United States. Includes 13 references, figures.