Recent years have seen the introduction of
a variety of early warning systems designed for
continuous on-line detection of disruptions in
security and quality in the water distribution
network. Any evaluation of these systems must
take into account numerous factors that go
beyond detection capability to include such
criteria as ease of use and dual-use value.
This article proposes standard criteria for
the coverage, operational, and performance
characteristics of early warning systems and
describes a methodology for mathematically
evaluating these systems using a modified
receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve
widely used by the military. The combination
of extensive specific criteria and the use of the
modified ROC curve can help water utilities
in selecting appropriate and effective early
warning system technology. In addition, the
modified ROC curves can be used during
system operation to help operators set realistic
detection thresholds based on risk conditions
while understanding the potential
tradeoff in false alarms. Includes 10 references, tables, figures.