定量微生物风险分析（QMRA）是一种广泛使用的预测方法 以及评估与水中存在的微生物病原体相关的感染风险。它的 系统应用为协助风险管理决策提供科学依据， 允许对干预优先级进行排序，并确保系统生成 提供符合健康目标的饮用水。最新的国际指南 饮用水质量促进一个预防性的、综合的（从源头到水龙头）框架 评估和管理饮用水安全。 本研究的主要目的是基于QMRA开发一个蒙特卡罗模型 方法，以评估与病毒存在相关的感染相对风险 饮用水中的隐孢子虫和贾第虫。具体来说，这种模式 分析了监控和数据采集（SCADA）数据的使用情况，以整合整个系统的实际情况- 规模化运作。这个 开发的模型允许:评估输入模型对估计的影响 风险评估（寄生虫发生率、治疗效果）；不同治疗方法的比较 基于微生物风险降低的情景；以及臭氧氧化影响的评估 以及紫外线（UV）消毒关闭期对估计风险的影响。包括38个参考文献、图表。

Quantitative Microbiological Risk Analysis (QMRA) is a widely used method for predicting and assessing the risk of infection associated with microbial pathogens present in water. Its systematic application provides a scientific basis to assist risk management decision-making, allows ranking of intervention priorities and making sure that the system produces and delivers drinking water that meets health targets. The latest international guidelines on drinking water quality promote a preventive, integrated (from source to tap) framework for assessing and managing the safety of drinking water. The principal objective of this study was to develop a Monte Carlo model, based on the QMRA approach, in order to assess the relative risk of infection associated with the presence of Cryptosporidium and Giardia in drinking water. Specifically, this model analyzes the use of supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data to integrate the reality of full-scale operations. The model developed allows: the assessment of the impact of the input models on the estimates of risk (parasite occurrence, treatment performance); the comparison of different treatment scenarios based on microbial risk reduction; and, the assessment of the impact of the ozonation and ultraviolet (UV) disinfection shutdown periods on the estimated risk. Includes 38 references, figures.