本文的目的是提出一种方法和相关方程式，用于对特定节能措施（ECM）相对于基准系统的节能进行工程不确定性分析。尽管本研究面向建筑冷却系统，但只要稍加修改，该方法就可以应用于大多数建筑测量和验证项目，这些项目涉及对系统进行测量、识别回归模型，以及在实施ECM后使用模型推断未来行为。 该方法涵盖了使用嵌套模型的情况，例如使用短期数据开发二次热负荷模型，然后使用该模型驱动冷水机用电模型。因此，该方法在嵌套模型方法的框架内处理测量误差、模型内部预测不确定性和模型外推偏差不确定性。本文的一个显著特点是，根据本文给出的方程式生成了一个由六个独立的相互关联的图表组成的列线图，用户可以通过选择各种不确定度源的适当值，以图形方式确定节约的最终不确定度。 通过一个例子来解释这个列线图的用法。单元:双引文:研讨会，ASHRAE交易，第105卷，第。1999年2月2日，西雅图

The objective of this paper is to present a methodology and pertinent equations for performing an engineering uncertainty analysis on the savings due to a particular energy conservation measure (ECM) as compared to a baseline system. Though this study is geared toward building cooling systems, the methodology can be applied with minor modification to most building measurement and verification programs that involve performing measurements of the system, identifying a regression model, and using the model to extrapolate for future behavior once the ECM has been implemented. The methodology covers the case in which a nested model is used, as when shortterm data are used to develop a model for building secondary thermal loads, which is then used to drive a model for chiller electricity use. Hence, the methodology treats measurement errors, model internal prediction uncertainty, and model extrapolation bias uncertainty in the framework of a nested model approach. A notable feature of this paper is that a nomograph, consisting of six separate interlinked graphs, has been generated based on the equations presented herein, whereby a user can graphically determine the final uncertainty in savings by selecting appropriate values of the various sources of uncertainty. The use of this nomograph is explained by means of an example.Units: Dual