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Multifaceted Time Series Forecasts of a Complex Surface Water Supply 复杂地表水供应的多方面时间序列预测
发布日期: 2004-01-11
佛罗里达州最大的批发公共供水商坦帕湾水务公司历来依赖 地下水将满足该地区约70%的公共供水需求 每天2.4亿加仑(mgd)。该州已下令减少地下水的使用 由于在井场附近观察到的环境影响。2000年至2001年的干旱 强调了佛罗里达州坦帕湾地区可靠供水的重要性,以满足 当前和未来的城市供水需求。满足当前和未来的需求 坦帕湾水务公司开发了新的地表水供应系统,以实现供水多样化 其他来源。坦帕湾水务公司还通过海水淡化开发了其他水源 海水和通过系统互连。 新的地表水水源于2002年开始投入使用,以取代传统的水源 地下水。与地下水供应不同,地表水流的自然变异性 给制定长期计划带来了新的挑战。坦帕湾水域的增强表面 水系统(ESWS)由两条河流和150亿加仑的水组成 蓄水池。地面抽水正在运行,水库目前正在运行 在建工程 本文描述了一种用于评估未来的统计方法的组合 供水可用性。这些统计方法包括长期趋势分析、季节性 使用快速傅立叶变换(FFT)进行分析,使用Box-Jenkins进行时间序列分析 自回归、集成、移动平均(ARIMA)建模和蒙特卡罗模拟。 建立了ESWS 25年预测的数学模型,包括误差 边界。还分析了大型水库的可用性或不可用性,以确定 它对减少可变性的影响。水库极大地改变了预期的供水时间 系列特征;然而,这些统计方法仍然适用于这种情况。 坦帕湾水务公司利用这项工作来帮助规划近期和长期资本 改进。总的来说,这些模型提供了一种全面的分析和表示方法 高度可变和复杂的供水系统。包括参考资料、表格、图表。
Tampa Bay Water, Florida's largest wholesale public water supplier, has historically relied on groundwater to meet approximately 70 percent of the region's public water supply needs of 240 million gallons per day (mgd). The state has mandated a reduction in groundwater use because of environmental effects observed near the wellfields. The 2000 through 2001 drought magnified the importance of a reliable water supply in the Tampa Bay, Florida, region to meet current and future municipal water supply needs. To meet current and future demands and to diversify their water supply, Tampa Bay Water has developed new surface water supplies as an alternative source. Tampa Bay Water has also developed other sources from desalinization of seawater and through system interconnections. New surface water sources were made operational beginning in 2002 to replace traditional groundwater. Unlike groundwater supplies, the natural variability in surface water flows has caused new challenges in developing long-term plans. Tampa Bay Water's Enhanced Surface Water System (ESWS) is composed of withdrawals from two rivers and a 15-billion-gallon offline storage reservoir. The surface withdrawals are operational and the reservoir is currently under construction. This paper describes a combination of statistical methods that were applied for evaluating future water supply availability. These statistical methods included long-term trend analysis, seasonal analysis using Fast Fourier Transforms (FFT), time series analysis using Box-Jenkins autoregressive, integrated, moving-average (ARIMA) modeling, and Monte Carlo simulations. Mathematical models of the 25-year forecast for the ESWS were developed, including error bounds. The availability or non-availability of the large reservoir was also analyzed to determine its impact on reducing variability. The reservoir dramatically altered the expected supply time series characteristics; however, these statistical approaches were still applicable in this situation. This work was used by Tampa Bay Water to help plan for near-term and long-range capital improvements. Collectively, these models provide a thorough approach to analyze and represent a highly variable and complex water supply system. Includes reference, tables, figures.
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发布单位或类别: 美国-美国给水工程协会
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