泄漏事件发生的概率很高。可能对饮用水原水水源产生重大影响的重大泄漏事件相对较少。需要一种系统的方法来设计和运行早期预警系统，该方法考虑到系统许多方面的高度可变和概率性质。这些包括泄漏的概率、监测设备的行为、可变水文，以及独立于监测系统获取泄漏信息的概率。 本文介绍了溢油风险的特点和应用，基于风险的模型，使用蒙特卡洛模拟技术，已发展为AWWA研究基金会项目的一部分。包括2个参考文献和表格。

Spill events are highly probabilistic occurrences. Major spills that can have very significant impacts on raw water sources of drinking water are relatively rare events. A systematic method for designing and operating early warning systems that considers the highly variable, probabilistic nature of many aspects of the system is needed. These include probability of spills, behavior of monitoring equipment, variable hydrology, and the probability of obtaining information about spills independent of a monitoring system. This paper describes the characteristics and application of Spill Risk, a risk-based model using Monte Carlo simulation techniques, that has been developed as part of an AWWA Research Foundation project. Includes 2 references, tables.