先进的控制技术，如模型预测控制，已经在个别建筑物中进行了研究，之前的研究表明，与目前在建筑物中实施的传统控制技术相比，在节能和改善舒适性方面具有潜力。这些先进的控制方法有可能在更可持续的城市发展中发挥关键作用。为了支持这一发展，需要对此类技术的潜力进行大规模评估，考虑建筑物的不同热特性，而不是专注于具体情况；到目前为止，缺乏可复制的方法学和灵活的工具来估计这种潜力。目前的论文属于这一框架。 它描述了一种综合工具，用于评估城市规模热负荷管理的潜力，同时考虑建筑物的被动存储容量。该工具没有应用有限数量的预定义场景，而是包括构建模型，并依靠预测优化（MPC）为用户定义的目标找到最佳（或接近最佳）的加热计划。该工具考虑了各种能量向量，可以自动处理不同建筑人口规模的不同优化目标。本文描述了该工具的一个应用，并以十栋具有不同热力特性的建筑为例，代表了不同的城市建设特点。 本案例研究的目的是在供暖期的两个月内尽量减少空间供暖需求。在调查的建筑配置中，研究表明，与基准能源管理方法相比，供暖需求中值减少10%至15%；在同一个案例研究中，不适持续时间减少的中位数在23%到100%之间。这项工作还显示了倒退温度对所考虑的十栋建筑的MPC策略的影响:与平设定点策略相比，3°C（5.4°F）的倒退可以节省7%到16%的空间加热能量。各种利益相关者都对先进热负荷控制带来的节能潜力进行了量化，包括愿意减少能源账单的住户或正在调查如何达到可持续性目标的城市。 后退温度对先进控制技术的节能和舒适性的影响为制定新标准或指南提供了技术背景。引用:2017年年度会议，加利福尼亚州长滩，会议论文

Advanced control techniques such as Model Predictive Control have been investigated in individual buildings and previous research has shown potentialfor energy saving and comfort improvement compared to conventional control techniques currently implemented in buildings. These advanced controlmethods have the potential to play a keyrole in the development of more sustainable cities. To support this development, the potential of such techniquesneeds to be evaluated at large scale, accounting for the diverse thermal characteristics of buildings rather than focusing on specific cases; to date, replicablemethodologies and flexible tools are lacking to estimate this potential. The current paper falls within this framework. It describes a comprehensive tool toestimate the potential for thermal load management at urban scale, while accounting for the passive storage capacity in buildings. Rather than applying alimited number of predefined scenarios, the tool includes building models and relies on predictive optimization (MPC) to find the best (or near-best)heating schedules for an user-defined objective. The tool considers various energy vectors and can deal automatically with different optimization objectivesacross varying building population sizes. The paper describes an application of the tool using a case study of ten buildings with various thermal propertiesrepresentative of different urban construction characteristics. The aim of the case study is to minimize space heating demand over two months during theheating period. Over the building configurations investigated, the work shows that the median heating demand reduction ranges between 10 and 15%compared to baseline energy management approach; for the same case study, the median discomfort duration reduction ranges between 23 and 100%. Thework also shows the impact of setback temperature on the MPC strategy for the ten buildings considered: with a 3°C (5.4°F) setback, between 7 and16% of space heating energy can be saved compared to a flat setpoint strategy. The quantification of the potential for energy saving resulting from advancedthermal load control is of interest to various stakeholders, including occupants willing to reduce their energy bills or cities investigating how to reachsustainability targets. The impact of the setback temperature on energy saving and comfort for advanced control techniques provides technical backgroundto develop new standards or guidelines.