材料替代是一个动态的、高度竞争的过程，通常会在几年内发生。本文探讨了替代过程的一个简单模型，并将其应用于纤维复合材料行业的几个历史案例。对20世纪90年代材料替代竞争领域的性质如何变化进行了一些观察。

MATERIALS SUBSTITUTION IS A DYNAMIC, HIGHLY COMPETITIVE PROCESS WHICH TYPICALLY OCCURS OVER A SEVERAL YEAR TIME PERIOD. THIS PAPER EXPLORES A SIMPLE MODEL OF THE SUBSTITUTION PROCESS AND ITS APPLICATION TO SEVERAL HISTORICAL EXAMPLES IN THE FIBER COMPOSITES INDUSTRY. SOME OBSERVATIONS ARE MADE ABOUT HOW THE NATURE OF COMPETITIVE ARENA FOR MATERIAL SUBSTITUTION IS CHANGING IN THE 1990S.