本文介绍了从使用最终使用模型到 确定干旱导致的干旱减水措施的有效性损失 实施长期保护计划。本文的目的是展示如何在最终使用时建模水资源使用和客户行为 该级别能够现实地评估需求削减的程度，以及 这些削减是如何由于通过长期计划获得的效率提高而减少的 减少需求计划。 本文将提供以下类型的信息，这些信息来自已完成的项目: 1.如何将干旱削减条例作为短期保护措施建模。 2.在干旱中哪些最终用途仍然可以减少 3.短期和长期最终用途削减如何相互作用 4.需求硬化的典型程度，作为长期需求量的函数- 学期 已实施或计划的保护。 5.客户在2025年等旱灾后削减开支的现实预期 积极的长期保护计划已经实施。最低成本规划需求管理决策支持系统（DSS模型）是一个终端 使用成本效益工具，在过去九年中已用于150个项目。直到最近才有 它被用来模拟需求硬化。迄今为止的调查结果显示，干旱条例 要求将短期需求减少25%的呼吁可能只会实现21-22%的削减 如果将管道和设备代码与长期计划结合起来，将节省大约15美元 百分比也就是说，在这种情况下，需求硬化仅为几个百分点。然而 与过去一样，暂时削减35%的预期并不现实。这个 使用最终用途模型将减少干旱和干旱地区目前所需的猜测工作量 提供规划，减少为长期节水项目提供资金的一个障碍。包括表格、数字。

This paper describes experiences and new learning from working with end use models to determine the loss in effectiveness of drought water reduction measures caused by the implementation of long-term conservation programs. The goal of the paper is to show how modeling water use and customer behavior at the end use level enables a realistic assessment of just how much cut-backs in demand can be expected and how those cut-backs are reduced due to the efficiency improvements obtained through long-term demand reduction programs. The paper will provide the following types of information, drawn from completed projects: 1. How to model a drought cut-back ordinance as a short-term conservation measure. 2. Which end uses can still be reduced in a drought 3. How short-term and long-term end use reductions interact 4. Typical magnitudes of demand hardening as a function of the amount of long-term conservation implemented or planned. 5. Realistic expectations for customer cut-backs in droughts in say 2025, after aggressive long-term conservation programs have been implemented. The Least Cost Planning Demand Management Decision Support System, or DSS model, an end use cost-benefit tool, has been used for 150 projects over the past nine years. Only recently has it been used to model demand hardening. Findings to-date are showing that drought ordinances that call for a 25 percent short-term demand reduction might only achieve 21-22 percent cutbacks if the plumbing and appliance codes and long-term programs together will save about 15 percent. That is, the demand hardening is only a few percent in this situation. However, expectations of achieving temporary 35 percent cut-backs, as in the past, are not realistic. The use of an end use model will reduce the amount of guess work currently required in drought and supply planning, and reduce one impediment to funding long-term water conservation programs. Includes tables, figures.