总水管破裂的成本可能占配电系统维护成本的很大一部分，并且对于何时更换管道没有通用的定量规则。本文根据记录的断裂历史，给出了一种确定需要更换哪些管道的简单方法。管道破裂预测模型涉及年龄、先前破裂率、管道尺寸和霜渗透效应等因素。给出了电流和临界断开率的计算公式。包括21个参考文献和表格。

The cost of water main breaks can represent a significant portion of a distribution system's maintenance costs, and there are no universal quantitative rules for when to replace pipe. This paper gives a simple method for determining which pipes need to be replaced, based on the history of recorded breaks. A pipe break prediction model involves factors such as age, previous break rate, pipe size, and frost penetration effects. Equations for current and critical break rates are given. Includes 21 references, tables.